economistsjīngjì xuéjiā经济学家warnjǐnggào警告United StatesMěiguó美国priceswùjià物价facingmiànlín面临upwardshàngxíng上行pressureyālì压力，IranYīlǎng伊朗warzhànzhēng战争afterhòu后first batch ofshǒu pī首批inflationtōngzhàng通胀datashùjù数据willjiāng将onyú于this weekběnzhōu本周be releasedgōngbù公布。
April 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM
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BusinessEconomists Warn of Significant US Inflation Spike in First Data Release Since Start of Iran War
Economists warn the first US inflation data covering the Iran war period, due around April 10, is expected to show a significant spike driven by energy prices and trade tariffs. The Fed faces mounting constraints as it navigates simultaneous inflation and recession risks.
Since the US-Iran war broke out in late February, the first inflation data covering the war period will be released around April 10, drawing significant market attention. Economists widely expect that due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the Hormuz Strait blockade, the Consumer Price Index will show clear upward pressure. US retail gasoline prices broke through $4 per gallon for the first time in late March, rising over 30% from pre-war levels, with energy becoming the main driver of inflation. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's successive introduction of auto tariffs, pharmaceutical tariffs, and reciprocal tariffs has further exacerbated upward pressure on imported goods prices. Some institutional economists warn that if the strait situation persists through the end of the second quarter, international crude oil prices could potentially breach $200 per barrel. Federal Reserve officials recently emphasized that under dual pressures of inflation and recession risks, monetary policy adjustment space is significantly constrained and rate-cut paths remain unclear. Analysts point out that the current US economy faces a dual dilemma of supply shocks and demand contraction, and if inflation data exceeds expectations, market concerns about stagflation will further intensify. Although March non-farm employment data beat expectations with 178,000 jobs added, analysts warn that the lagged effects of tariffs and war may gradually materialize over coming months.
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